Wednesday, November 21, 2007

Zune Can't Win

Microsoft's answer to Apple's digital music player, the iPod, is the Zune. It wasn't a big hit when it was first released. However, with Zune 2.0, it may turn the tides, but Apple have had a big head start.

Zune too Late?

Finally, Microsoft got digital music right -- to bad it's five years too late. PC Magazine just awarded the Microsoft Zune 80GB player an Editor's Choice. Unfortunately, it's the best of a dying breed - hard drive-based players, but still sports a brilliant blend of elegant design, intuitive interface, and strong features.

Hard drive-based players are becoming rarer, with flash-driven players with all the rage. The Apple iPod touch, the number one most-coveted player today, is an 8GB flash player. So are the Apple iPod nano, SanDisk's best players, and the Samsung p2. Microsoft did produce a new flash-based player too. The Microsoft Zune 8GB model uses flash memory, pleasingly thin, and shares that same smart interface to the new Zune Marketplace as its big brother.

Several tests show, however, that the display is sluggish, and iPod nano and touch thumps that area. Whatever issues exist with the flash-based Zune are probably easily fixed, though it's hard to imagine that Microsoft can do anything to the player that would make it more attractive than Apple's flash offerings.

Microsoft does present some minor innovations. (No, not the integration of FM radio—SanDisk and just about every other iPod competitor does that.) The ad hoc music sharing is a nifty curiosity: Share music with other Zune owners, who get to play the songs three times (over three days, three months, three years or any time span you want). The fundamental flaw here is, I'm sure, obvious to you: You have to know other Zune owners for this to work. Do you know any? In the year since Zune first launched, I have yet to meet one.

This, of course, invites the question: If Microsoft could build in Wi-Fi, why didn't the company make a deal with some service provider to turn thousands of hot spots into music-download spigots? Could it be that no one wanted to make a deal with Microsoft? Music partners haven't always fared so well with the Redmond-based company. Just look at what happened with PlaysForSure, which Microsoft left out of the first- and second-generation Zunes, and the disastrous, short-lived MTV/Urge relationship.

Still, companies like Verizon like to make money, and they must be gnashing their teeth over the Apple/T-Mobile hot spot/Starbucks deal. Any wireless service provider could be making pennies per download with Microsoft and its new Zunes. Multiply this by a million downloads and you're talking some serious cash.

The harsh reality is that Microsoft will never win in the digital music market—unless someone discovers that iPods cause cancer. I have to believe that Microsoft knows this and accepts it. It's not looking for Apple converts—a good plan because there won't be any. Instead, Microsoft will go for digital music virgins. There are still millions of them. Many are adults who don't understand why everything Apple does is so cool. Others always considered Apple's products too expensive. The Zune is cool in its own right, though it lacks that intangible quality of every Apple product.

Young people graduating from the Nintendo DS to music players may not accept the Zune ("cool" plays too large in their lives and they'll likely demand an iPod touch or nano), but young adults, grown adults, and the elderly could be perfect target markets for the new Zunes. With that in mind, Microsoft may want to take another look at its ad campaign, which is obviously designed to appeal to people who love the iPod ads.

No comments: